AmerCon : Energy : Archive

A decent effort, but insufficiently
audacious. This is another plan
based on the continued availability of
cheap oil well past 2030. All of the
investments recommended here
should be vastly increased. And a
national plan is shortsighted -- we
need an international plan because
no one can be left behind.

ehj2

The International
Energy Agency's
latest oil
production forecast
showing continued
growth until the
year 2030 is
unrealistic and "a
prescription for
economic disaster",
according to a new
independent
analysis by Danish
energy consultant
Klaus Illum.

ODAC

Prepare Now For Growing Oil Scarcity
Deutsche Bank Warns

The hydrocarbon era "is increasingly likely to be
coming to an end", Deutsche Bank warns in a recently
published research paper, and "politicians, company
chiefs and economists should prepare for this in
good time, to effect the necessary transitions as
smoothly as possible." Citing evidence of an
approaching peak in world oil production within just a
few years, the paper (Energy prospects after the
petroleum age, December 2, 2004) suggests that
"strong reactions in prices and economic upheaval
are possible" when output starts to decline. "The
possibility of realigning the energy mix without radical
economic disturbance would be all the more likely,"
the paper concludes, "the sooner politicians, industry
and private consumers respond to the signs of the
times on the markets for hydrocarbons."

ODAC

ASPO Revises Global Peak Oil Forecast

The Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) has published a revised forecast for global peak oil
production in its latest monthly newsletter (updating the above chart).

The ASPO model, which analyses various categories of oil separately taking account of their differing
production and depletion profiles, now shows that the peak production date for 'regular oil' (also commonly
referred to as 'conventional oil') would be 2006, and global production of all liquids (including
'unconventional' sources of oil) would peak in 2007. Further revisions will be made based on the recently
published Oil & Gas Journal data for 2004 You can subscribe to the free monthly newsletter here.

ODAC